Search results for "Ciências Sociais::Economia e Gestão"
showing 8 items of 8 documents
Spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle
2017
We assess the spillovers from the oil sector to the housing market cycle using quarterly data for 20 net oil-exporting and -importing industrial countries, and employing continuous- and discrete-time duration models. We do not uncover a statistically significant difference in the average duration of booms and normal times in the housing markets of those net oil-importers and net oil-exporters. Similarly, the degree of exposure to commodity price fluctuations does not seem to significantly affect the housing market cycle. However, we find that housing booms are shorter when oil prices increase than housing busts when oil prices decrease. We also show that the net oil-importers are more vulne…
Do debt crises boost financial reforms?
2014
"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"
Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability
2016
Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.
Can re-regulation of the financial sector strike back public debt?
2015
This paper analyzes the impact of financial sector policy changes on the dynamics of public debt. Using a panel of 89 countries from 1973 to 2005, we find that while the implementation of (large) financial liberalisation policies significantly raises the public debt growth rate, the adoption of financial re-regulation measures leads to a mild reduction of public debt. Looking at the different typologies of financial sector policy changes, we show that stricter banking supervision, privatisations and restrictions to international capital flows contribute to a fast decline of the growth rate of public debt. In contrast, the removal of entry barriers and the elimination of interest rate contro…
The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion
2014
We investigate the determinants of the volatility of fiscal policy discretion. Using a linear dynamic panel dataset model for 104 countries from 1980 to 2006 and a system-GMM estimator,we find that more government instability, less democracy and presidentialist systems increase the volatility of the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Additionally, we show that countries with a larger size, a smaller degree of financial openness, and a stable exchange rate system are more insured against the uncertainty about the conduct of fiscal policy. Our results are robust to various regional dummy variables, diferent sub-sets of countries and the presence of high inflation and crisis episodes.
Booms, Busts and normal times in the housing market
2015
We assess the existence of duration dependence in the likelihood of an end in housing booms, busts, and normal times. Using data for 20 industrial countries and a continuous-time Weibull duration model, we find evidence of positive duration dependence suggesting that housing market cycles have become longer over the last decades. Then, we extend the baseline Weibull model and allow for the presence of a change-point in the duration dependence parameter.We show that positive duration dependence is present in booms and busts that last less than 26 quarters, but that does not seem to be the case for longer phases of the housing market cycle. For normal times, no evidence of change-points is fo…
Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms
2015
We use data for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980-2005 to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms. We show that fiscal adjustments do not boost the implementation of financial reforms. However, tax-driven fiscal consolidation programs raise the likelihood of banking sector reforms. Moreover, we find that: (i) an increase in the degree of trade openness makes countries less likely to implement financial reforms; (ii) an increase in the interest rate spreads accelerates the path of financial reforms, especially, external capital account reforms; and (iii) an improvement in the quality of political institutions strongly enhances the prob…
Examining the generalizability of research findings from archival data
2022
This research project benefitted from Ministry of Education (Singapore) Tier 1 Grant R-313-000-131-115 (to A. Delios), National Science Foundation of China Grants 72002158 (to H.T.) and 71810107002 (to H.T.), grants from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation (to A. Dreber) and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation (through a Wallenberg Scholar grant; to A. Dreber), Austrian Science Fund (FWF) Grant SFB F63 (to A. Dreber), grants from the Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation (Svenska Handelsbankens Forskningsstiftelser; to A. Dreber), and an Research & Development (R&D) research grant from Institut Européen d'Administration des Affaires (INSEAD) (to E.L.U.). Dmitrii Dubrov, o…